Hey everyone and welcome to Developer Tea. My name is Jonathan Cottrell and in today's episode I'm going to be talking about thinking in intervals. Today I'm going to share with you a very simple concept that you can use when estimating. Pretty much estimating anything actually. Estimation can be a daunting task. We've talked multiple times about concepts related to estimation. For example, the episode regarding sandwiches. I'll leave a link in the show notes for you to check that episode out. So today we're going to be talking about estimation. We're going to be talking about thinking in intervals. Today's episode is sponsored by Linode. With Linode you can instantly deploy and manage an SSD server in the Linode cloud. You can get a server running in just seconds with your choice of Linux distribution resources and node location. Check out linode.com slash developer tea. We will talk about that in a minute. We'll talk more about what Linode has to offer developer tea listeners later on in today's episode. Estimation is hard. It's hard because we're stuck trying to decide from a very long zoomed out view what a very detailed estimation of sum total is. For example, we look at a project and we estimate that it will take let's say 50 days to complete that project. But let's say each day we actually work an extra hour long. Longer than we thought. Or perhaps it takes that amount of time on the end of the project longer than we expected. Ultimately we're going to take about six extra days beyond our budget. It's actually more than six days. It would be a total of somewhere around a 12.5% loss on that estimation. Now if that happens over and over. If we lose 12.5% over the course of a year. That's probably going to remove all of our profit margin. Or at least a large chunk of it. And ultimately a company can't survive under those conditions. If we constantly are underestimating by that large amount. Even though it feels like not that much. Just an extra hour or so. That can cause major issues. It can cause a company to go under if it goes for too long. So how can we fix this problem of underestimation? This is the topic of so much conversation. For example in the app. Agile world where we do story points. A very common fix to the problem is to try to estimate things not in time. But rather in story points. Because we typically are pretty bad at estimating time. We're better at estimating effort. But it's not just estimation. Today's principle can extend to every part of your life. Including your daily task management. Your financial goals. And even your personal goals. Let's say you want to lose a couple of pounds. Let's say you want to lose a couple of pounds. This can actually help you think about the process. The day by day process that would be necessary to accomplish those personal goals. We talked about personal goals in the past couple of episodes. With regards to taking that plan down to the day to day level. Now we're going to talk about today's principle. That I want to share with you that I think is going to help your estimation processes. Right after we talk about today's sponsor Linode. With Linode. You can be up to date. Up and running. With your root access. You log in as root through SSH. To your perfect configuration. In just a few minutes. On a super fast SSD powered Linux server. Linode provides 8 data centers. And plans that start at just $10 a month. You get hourly billing. With a monthly cap on all plans. And add-on services. So for example. Backups, no balancers, and long view. Linode provides VMs for example. With root access. For full control. You can run a docker container. You can run an encrypted disk. Or a VPN. You can even run your own private git server. Linode has native SSD storage. With a 40 gigabit network internally. And Intel E5 processors. So speed is not a problem on the Linode network. Beyond that they have a 7 day money back guarantee. So you really have nothing to lose here. And if that wasn't enough. Linode is providing developer to you listeners. With $20 of credit at checkout. Totally for free. By using the code developerT20. You can have that credit applied automatically. By going straight to linode.com. Slash developerT. And of course that link will be in the show notes. At spec.fm. Thanks so much to Linode. For sponsoring today's episode of developerT. So we've been talking about estimation. We've talked about it in the past. This is a notoriously difficult task. To accomplish as a developer. Or a product owner. Or maybe you're a project manager. And about this principle that I believe. Will change the way you think about estimation. And really could change the way you think about planning. In pretty much any area of your life. And I want you to share this with people. If you think it's going to be impacting. Because it has totally changed the way. I think about my life. Quite simply. I want to shift your way of thinking. From infinite continuums. And instead to thinking. In intervals. Instead of thinking in infinite continuums. For example. When estimating thinking in seconds, minutes or even hours. And instead thinking in intervals. Think in larger blocks. So instead of thinking in seconds, minutes or hours. You think in days. Or maybe in weeks. An interval is a set distance. From one marking point. To the next. For our purposes. An interval may be an 8 hour day. Or perhaps a one week block of time. If you plan your. Projects based on how many days they will take. Rather than how many minutes. Or hours they may take. The amount of time and energy you spend planning. Will immediately be relieved. And your estimations. Are going to become more accurate. Start planning your days. Your projects. And your future plans. In larger intervals. So why is this effective? Why does it work so well? Because it works on the law of averages. When you try to plan everything down to the minute. You automatically allocate your resources. Based on those minute to minute plans. The problem is. You expect those plans to be exactly right. So when you start thinking in intervals. You plan based on those intervals. And your margin of error. On average begins to equalize itself. In other words. You may be off by. One prediction by 5%. But on the next prediction. You could be off by negative 5%. The reality is. If you use intervals in conjunction with ranges. For prediction. Which we've talked about in the past as well. You can increase your level of accuracy greatly. And here's the important part. You decrease the amount of energy. You put into estimation. And planning. You decrease the amount of energy. You put into estimation. And planning. And you rely on the rule of averages. To help even out the gains and losses. In the end. The rule of averages says that. Eventually things even out. If you estimate. One direction. If you're really bad at estimating. In the negative. Then eventually you'll shift your estimation. And you may end up estimating. More to the positive. You may underestimate. Or overestimate. And as you go down that path. Of underestimating and overestimating. Those errors are going to even themselves out. They're going to average out in the end. Aiming at a larger target. Will simply increase your accuracy. Aiming at a larger target. Will simply increase. Your accuracy. This will help you plan. And will create a different mindset. When it comes to planning. That allows for flux. And invites change. And here's the important part. That I don't want you to miss out on. If your planning methods. Make change a bad thing. Then your planning methods. May have a strongly negative effect. On your end product. Okay. If your planning methods. Make change. A bad thing. If they say that change. Is ultimately hurtful towards you. Then your planning methods. The way that you go about. Trying to estimate these things. Those planning methods. May have a strongly negative effect. On your end product. Instead you should shift your planning. And process. To invite change. Use intervals. Instead of infinite continuums. For your estimation. And you're inviting change. Because those intervals. Allow for that error. They can basically. There's a lot of play. There's a lot of room to move. Inside an interval. Think about your career. In three or five year chunks. Rather than one week at a time. Think about a development project. In terms of weeks. Instead of minutes. Think about your personal budget. In terms of a hundred dollars. Rather than pennies. This ultimately frees your time. And allows you to focus. On creating. More value. And doing the thing you are estimating. Rather than trying to hit. An impossibly small target. In the process. Of estimating. Thank you so much for listening to this episode of developer team. I hope this has been helpful. And I hope that this will. Spark some conversation between you. And the people you work with perhaps you and your family as well. And you and your friends. Thank you so much again for listening to today's episode. And thank you to Linode. If you. Are looking for a cloud hosting provider. Linode may be the perfect option for you. Especially. If you want root access on a Linux server. Go and check it out. Linode.com slash developer T. Of course that will be in the show notes at spec. Dot. FM. There are other shows on the spec network that you may love. Go and check it out. Spec. Dot. FM. There's a ton of awesome content for developers and designers to level up. You can follow me on Twitter at, at developer T. And of course, if you're enjoying the show, please leave a review in iTunes. This is the best way that you can help other developers. Just like you find and enjoy developer T. Thank you so much for listening. And until next time, enjoy your tea. Bye. Bye.